Policies·br_cruzado_plan_1986

Plano Cruzado (Brazil, February 1986)

BRA·1986 – 1987·enacted 1986-02-28candidate

movesmonetary expansion direction↓financial deregulation↓product market competition↓

What the policy did

Decreto-Lei 2.283 of 28 February 1986 and complementary measures under Finance Minister Dílson Funaro, designed by Bresser, Arida, Lara-Resende, Lopes, Nakano. Price-and-wage freeze; indexation abolished; cruzado replaced cruzeiro at 1,000:1. Monthly inflation fell from 15% to near-zero in March-April 1986. Consumption boom; PMDB swept 15 November 1986 midterms. Demand exceeded supply; shortages; cattle-hoarding. Plano Cruzado II (November 1986, post-election) raised prices — inflation returned, hit ~80% monthly by early 1987.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

monetary expansion direction

monetary.monetary_expansion_direction

Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.

decreased · strong

contractionary (balance sheet shrink, rates above Taylor)

Initial disinflation; reversed within 12 months.

↓

financial deregulation

regulatory.financial_deregulation

Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.

decreased · moderate

looser financial regulation

Price-wage-indexation freeze.

unintended / side-effect

↓

product market competition

regulatory.product_market_competition

Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.

decreased · moderate · unintended

more restrictive regulation, higher entry barriers

Price controls produced shortages.

Enacted by

brazil_sarney_pmdb_1985_1990

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

The Soviet central-planning system, having already exhibited TFP stagnation 1970-1989, underwent a canonical institutional and economic collapse 1989-1998 as plan-enforcement was withdrawn without functioning market institutions in place.

soviet_union_central_planning_gdp_collapse_1989_1991inferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitionmonetary.monetary_expansion_direction

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Statutory price ceilings set below plausible market-clearing prices produce measurable shortage indicators — stockouts, queue formation, black-market emergence, quality degradation, and in monetary- expansion contexts, large divergences between official and parallel- market prices.

price_controls_shortage_effectinferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directionregulatory.product_market_competitionregulatory.financial_deregulation

SUPPORTED — all 4 canonical episodes show the shortage signature (parallel ratio > 1.5 or post/pre inflation >= 1.5x). Aggregate event-time ATT (post 0..+5, log…

supported

Statutory price ceilings set below market-clearing prices reliably produce shortages, rationing via queue or privilege, quality degradation, and black-market arbitrage — across every documented episode where enforcement is sustained.

price_controls_produce_shortages_and_quality_degradationinferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directionregulatory.product_market_competition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=41, donors=1)

run pending

Across the 2008-2014 ZLB era and the 2020-2021 pandemic-response window, large-scale de-facto monetary finance of fiscal expansion in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone did not produce headline-CPI inflation consistent with naive quantity-theoretic monetisation predictions: cumulative central-bank balance-sheet expansion exceeded 15% of GDP while CPI YoY remained below 3% in each economy across both windows.

monetary_finance_zlb_no_inflationinferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_direction

REFUTED — CPI threshold breach: USA zlb_2008_2014 peak 3.81% in 2008; USA covid_2020_2021 peak 4.68% in 2021; Eurozone CPI not loaded

refuted

Venezuela's post-1999 socialist policy regime (Chávez 1999-2013 + Maduro 2013-present, characterised by FX controls, price controls, mass nationalisations, PDVSA politicisation, and 2014+ monetary financing of fiscal deficits) produced a canonical institutional and economic collapse that manifests as ≥7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from an independent data source and measuring a different causal layer.

venezuela_chavismo_canonical_case_multi_metricinferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directionregulatory.product_market_competition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Peru's 1990-1995 Fujimori shock-therapy package (price liberalisation, fiscal stabilisation under the August 1990 "Fujishock", Brady-style external debt restructuring 1996-1997, large-scale privatisation of SOEs, central-bank independence under the 1993 constitution, and trade liberalisation) produced a structural break in inflation and real-GDP per capita relative to Peru's 1985-1990 hyperinflation trajectory and relative to a Latin American peer pool that did not adopt comparable packages on the same timeline.

peru_fujimori_shock_therapy_1990_2000inferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitionmonetary.monetary_expansion_direction

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-0.7927, |gap|/pre_sd=7.8, p_perm=0.4; claim direction ambiguous

partial

Across a broad panel of economies 1980-2020, market reforms (privatisation, trade liberalisation, and price decontrol) produce durable gains in real GDP per capita growth only when rule-of-law scores exceed a minimum threshold (WGI Rule of Law > -0.5, approximately the 40th percentile of the global distribution).

rule_of_law_market_reform_complementarityinferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competition

REFUTED — coef=-0.1483 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00481

refuted

Cuba's post-1959 socialist policy regime (Castro 1959-2008 + Raúl 2008-2018 + Díaz-Canel 2018-present, characterised by single-party rule, state ownership of most productive assets, ration-card consumption, FX duality, and chronic suppression of private enterprise) produced a canonical 60-year material stagnation that manifests as ≥7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from an independent data source and measuring a different causal layer.

cuba_socialist_economy_stagnation_1960_2023inferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directionregulatory.product_market_competition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

China austerity and rectification programme 1988-1991

CHN·1988

match

2.4

product market competitionmonetary expansion directionfinancial deregulation

Korea IMF programme conditions and implementation (1997-2000)

KOR·1997

match

1.9

monetary expansion directionfinancial deregulation

Thailand IMF Stand-By Arrangement (1997)

THA·1997