Policies·br_plano_collor_asset_freeze_1990

Plano Collor I — asset freeze (March 1990)

BRA·1990 – ·enacted 1990-03-16candidate

movesfinancial deregulation↓property rights↓monetary expansion direction↓

What the policy did

Medida Provisória 168 of 16 March 1990 (Plano Brasil Novo / Plano Collor I) under Finance Minister Zélia Cardoso de Mello. Replaced cruzado novo with cruzeiro at 1:1. Blocked 80% of financial assets held in overnight market, savings accounts > NCz$ 50,000, and demand deposits > NCz$ 50,000 for 18 months in frozen BCB accounts — confiscated ~30% of M4 (~$100B). Price-wage freeze; fiscal tightening; customs reforms. Monthly inflation fell briefly to ~9% in May 1990 before returning to 20%+.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

financial deregulation

regulatory.financial_deregulation

Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.

decreased · strong

looser financial regulation

80% liquidity freeze.

↓

property rights

institutional.property_rights

Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.

decreased · strong

weaker property rights

Confiscation of financial property.

↓

monetary expansion direction

monetary.monetary_expansion_direction

Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.

decreased · moderate

contractionary (balance sheet shrink, rates above Taylor)

Initial disinflation — brief.

Enacted by

brazil_collor_prn_1990_1992

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Zimbabwean property-rights deterioration post-2000 (commercial-farm expropriation without compensation) precedes hyperinflation and output collapse; institutional mechanism is necessary, not merely monetary.

zimbabwe_property_rights_output_linkinferred

viainstitutional.property_rightsmonetary.monetary_expansion_direction

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

run pending

Zimbabwe's Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP, 2000-2002) combined with Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe deficit monetisation produced a canonical institutional and economic collapse 2000-2009 that manifests as >=7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from an independent data source and measuring a different causal layer (agricultural-capacity destruction, monetary collapse, output contraction, human-capital flight, humanitarian stress).

zimbabwe_hyperinflation_land_reform_output_collapse_2000_2009inferred

viainstitutional.property_rightsmonetary.monetary_expansion_directionregulatory.financial_deregulation

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

The Soviet central-planning system, having already exhibited TFP stagnation 1970-1989, underwent a canonical institutional and economic collapse 1989-1998 as plan-enforcement was withdrawn without functioning market institutions in place.

soviet_union_central_planning_gdp_collapse_1989_1991inferred

viainstitutional.property_rightsmonetary.monetary_expansion_direction

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Venezuela's post-1999 socialist policy regime (Chávez 1999-2013 + Maduro 2013-present, characterised by FX controls, price controls, mass nationalisations, PDVSA politicisation, and 2014+ monetary financing of fiscal deficits) produced a canonical institutional and economic collapse that manifests as ≥7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from an independent data source and measuring a different causal layer.

venezuela_chavismo_canonical_case_multi_metricinferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directioninstitutional.property_rights

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Zimbabwean land reform 2000-2008 redistributed ownership to previously excluded populations; the inflation crisis was driven by external sanctions and fiscal-military pressures, not by the redistributive policy itself.

zimbabwe_land_reform_cause_decompositioninferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directioninstitutional.property_rights

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

run pending

Across the 2008-2014 ZLB era and the 2020-2021 pandemic-response window, large-scale de-facto monetary finance of fiscal expansion in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone did not produce headline-CPI inflation consistent with naive quantity-theoretic monetisation predictions: cumulative central-bank balance-sheet expansion exceeded 15% of GDP while CPI YoY remained below 3% in each economy across both windows.

monetary_finance_zlb_no_inflationinferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_direction

REFUTED — CPI threshold breach: USA zlb_2008_2014 peak 3.81% in 2008; USA covid_2020_2021 peak 4.68% in 2021; Eurozone CPI not loaded

refuted

Starting from comparable 1945 post-war conditions — same ethnicity, language, pre-war German institutional and industrial inheritance, and with the GDR inheriting a larger share of pre-war industrial capital in Saxony and Thuringia — the Federal Republic's Soziale Marktwirtschaft (Ordoliberal market economy with welfare state) versus the German Democratic Republic's planned economy with administered prices, state-enterprise production, and soft budget constraints produced by 1989 a canonical divergence that pattern-matches >=7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from a different publisher or methodology family.

west_east_germany_economic_system_divergence_1950_1989inferred

viainstitutional.property_rights

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Cuba's post-1959 socialist policy regime (Castro 1959-2008 + Raúl 2008-2018 + Díaz-Canel 2018-present, characterised by single-party rule, state ownership of most productive assets, ration-card consumption, FX duality, and chronic suppression of private enterprise) produced a canonical 60-year material stagnation that manifests as ≥7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from an independent data source and measuring a different causal layer.

cuba_socialist_economy_stagnation_1960_2023inferred

viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directioninstitutional.property_rights

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Bank nationalisation decree (Mexico, 1 September 1982)

MEX·1982

match

2.0

financial deregulationproperty rights

Bank-nationalisation announcement (Peru, 28 July 1987)

PER·1987

match

2.0

financial deregulationproperty rights

Pakistan foreign-currency account freeze (1998)

PAK·1998