IESET.
Policies·cl_reforma_educacional_inclusion_2015

Reforma Educacional Inclusion 2015

CHL·2014 2018candidate
movestax corporatetax progressivitytransfer expansionspending level

What the policy did

Ley 20.845 de Inclusión Escolar (Ley de Inclusión) enacted in June 2015 under the second Bachelet government. Phased out shared-financing copayments in publicly subsidised schools, banned for-profit operation by voucher schools, and prohibited selective admissions, replacing them with a centralised lottery-based assignment system. Aimed at reducing socio-economic segregation in Chile's voucher school system.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
increased · weak
higher corporate tax burden
For-profit ban and reinvestment requirement for subsidised operators raised effective tax burden.
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
increased · weak
more progressive (higher top rates, wider spread, larger targeted credits)
Companion 2014 tax reform funded the inclusion package via more progressive corporate taxation.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · weak
larger transfer footprint
Replacement of family copayments with state subsidy effectively transferred costs to public budget.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · weak
higher spending share
Phasing out copayments increased Ministry of Education subsidy outlays per voucher seat.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Large-scale universal or near-universal transfer programmes produce a three-order causal chain.
universal_transfer_programmes_labour_force_participation_declineinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_level
partial — Prime-age LFP fell by ≥1.0pp in 2/5 cases (threshold for SUPPORTED: ≥3). First-order improved in 3/4 cases. Mixed: consistent with the spec's design-d…
partial
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality.
heritage_tax_burden_under5_mortality_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.tax_corporate
PARTIAL — controlled coefficient not decisive (coef=-0.3884, p=0.7236)
partial
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_tax_burden_under5_mortality_current_gapinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.spending_level
PARTIAL — gap sign/magnitude not decisive (diff=-1.127, p=0.811)
partial
Large welfare states sustain long-run real GDP per capita growth when paired with market flexibility (low product- and labour-market barriers), trade openness, and fiscal discipline (debt-to-GDP below 90%), but not when paired with rigid product and labour markets, in an OECD and rich- country panel 1980-2020.
welfare_state_market_flexibility_complementinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — coef=+3.308e-18, p=0.653; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available life expectancy.
heritage_tax_burden_life_expectancy_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.tax_corporate
REFUTED — controlled market-score coefficient has opposite sign and p=0.0005532
refuted
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available physician density.
heritage_tax_burden_physician_density_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.tax_corporate
PARTIAL — controlled coefficient not decisive (coef=-0.09846, p=0.2114)
partial
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available life expectancy than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_tax_burden_life_expectancy_current_gapinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — gap sign/magnitude not decisive (diff=-2.188, p=0.1386)
partial
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available physician density than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_tax_burden_physician_density_current_gapinferred
viafiscal.tax_progressivityfiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — gap sign/magnitude not decisive (diff=-0.6504, p=0.1087)
partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.