Policies·ar_cepo_cambiario_2011_2015

Cepo cambiario — FX controls regime

ARG·2011 – 2015·enacted 2011-10-28·FPVcandidate

movesfinancial deregulation↓trade openness↓

What the policy did

28 Oct 2011 AFIP + BCRA introduced FX-purchase-approval regime ("cepo"): individuals required AFIP validation of fiscal capacity to buy USD, limits on savings + travel + imports, DJAI import-declaration regime Feb 2012, DJAS services. Parallel "dólar blue" market emerged with spread peaking ~80% (Sep 2014) vs official rate. Reserves fell from USD 52bn (Jan 2011) to USD 25bn (Dec 2015). Lifted Dec 2015 under Macri as first major act, reimposed Sep 2019 then expanded by Alberto Fernández.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

financial deregulation

regulatory.financial_deregulation

Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.

decreased · strong

looser financial regulation

Capital-account controls + FX-rationing regime; multiple exchange rates.

↓

trade openness

regulatory.trade_openness

Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.

decreased · moderate

more protectionist

DJAI import-licensing + FX-access restrictions on payments.

Enacted by

argentina_cfk_pj_2007_2015

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.

estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred

viaregulatory.trade_openness

PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)

partial

Australia’s long expansion after the Hawke-Keating reforms (1983–1996) — including tariff cuts, financial deregulation, competition-policy introduction, and fiscal consolidation — is better predicted by market liberalisation than by sector-specific state direction.

australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_runinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=-0.03935, p=0.076 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

Canada’s long-run prosperity after the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (1988) and NAFTA (1994) is more associated with market openness than with national industrial-policy initiatives.

canada_market_liberalisation_vs_state_industry_1988_2024inferred

viaregulatory.trade_openness

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'canada_post_1988' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

run pending

Singapore's long-run prosperity and frontier convergence are better predicted by extreme trade openness, strong rule of law, competitive product and services markets, and high economic freedom than by state ownership or industrial targeting alone.

singapore_state_capacity_market_openness_comboinferred

viaregulatory.trade_openness

PARTIAL — coef=-0.0001143, p=0.713 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

partial

Countries in the top quartile of Heritage investment freedom in 2024 have higher latest-available trade openness than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.

heritage_investment_freedom_trade_openness_current_gapinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.financial_deregulation

SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign + and Welch p=0.0005285

supported

Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage investment freedom in 2024 have higher latest-available trade openness.

heritage_investment_freedom_trade_openness_income_region_robustnessinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.financial_deregulation

SUPPORTED — controlled market-score coefficient has expected sign + and p=0.01518

supported

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), with trading formally commencing 2021-01-01, has not yet produced a measurable acceleration in aggregate African trade-openness ratios over the 2021-2024 window relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of non-AfCFTA emerging-market regions, because of slow tariff- schedule ratification, COVID-19 trade disruption, and weak cross-border infrastructure.

trade_lib_afcfta_2021_intra_african_tradeinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.financial_deregulation

REFUTED — shape=panel_summary, sign - OPPOSITE claim +; |Δ_log|=0.288, ratio=0.75

refuted

The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), with the goods agreement effective 2010-01-01 for the original ASEAN-6, raised ASEAN-6 merchandise-export intensity over the 2010-2019 window relative to non-ASEAN comparator economies.

trade_lib_acfta_asean_china_2010_export_growthinferred

viaregulatory.trade_openness

PARTIAL — ATT=+3.31, p=0.324, N=295, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Massa-era stepped devaluations and multi-rate FX regime (2023)

ARG·2023

match

1.9

financial deregulationtrade openness

RECADI multi-tier exchange-rate system (Venezuela, 1983)

VEN·1983

match

1.7

financial deregulationtrade openness

France exchange-control abolition (1987-1990)

FRA·1987