Policies·bo_aguas_illimani_la_paz_concession_1997

Aguas del Illimani La Paz-El Alto water concession 1997

BOL·1997 – 2005·enacted 1997-07-24·ADN-MIR-UCS-NFR-CONDEPAcandidate

What the policy did

July 1997 concession of La Paz-El Alto water+sewerage system to Aguas del Illimani (Suez-led consortium). 30-year contract; investment commitments + tariff regulation by Superintendencia de Saneamiento Básico. Pre-existing at Water War but protests extended to La Paz 2004-2005; contract terminated 2005 under Mesa administration.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↑

sectoral licensing

regulatory.sectoral_licensing

Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).

increased · moderate

tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating

Private water-concession licensing in capital metropolitan area.

Enacted by

bolivia_banzer_adn_1997_2001

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Among high-income economies 1990-2020, services-sector competition — measured by low barriers to entry, low incumbent-protection scores, and high churn in retail, transport, communications, and professional services — predicts long-run prosperity (real GDP per capita growth and labour-productivity growth) better than manufacturing-specific industrial policy spending.

sectoral_competition_services_productivityinferred

viaregulatory.sectoral_licensing

PARTIAL — coef=+0.000842, p=0.361 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

Across an unbalanced panel of OECD and emerging-market economies 1980-2020, higher firm-entry rates (new business registrations per 1000 working-age population) predict stronger subsequent 20-year total-factor-productivity growth, after controlling for initial GDP per capita, human capital, and capital-deepening rates.

firm_entry_rate_long_run_productivityinferred

viaregulatory.sectoral_licensing

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.06104 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0079

supported

US business-dynamism measures — the firm-formation rate (new establishments per 1000 working-age population), the job- reallocation rate, and the share of employment in firms aged 0-5 — declined materially over 1980-2020.

austrian_kirzner_entrepreneurship_business_dynamism_decline_us_1980_2020inferred

viaregulatory.sectoral_licensing

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['bls:business_dynamics_statistics_firm_births', 'bls:business_dynamics_statistics_young_firm_e…

run pending

Across US states and a cross-country panel of OECD and middle- income economies 1980-2020, higher occupational and business licensing burdens predict weaker entrepreneurship rates and lower intergenerational income mobility over long horizons.

licensing_burden_income_mobilityinferred

viaregulatory.sectoral_licensing

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['academic:chetty_hendren_kline_saez_igmb', 'bls:business_dynamics_statistics_firm_births', 'bl…

run pending

Across US states 2000-2022, higher occupational-licensing intensity in licensed service sectors (proxied by share of state workforce requiring a state-issued license, derived from BLS Current Population Survey supplements) is associated with higher consumer prices in the affected service sectors and lower employment in those sectors, conditional on state per-capita income, demographic composition, and rural/urban share.

classical_occupational_licensing_consumer_loss_us_state_panelinferred

viaregulatory.sectoral_licensing

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['bls:cpi_services_subindex', 'bls:ces_state_employment']

run pending

Liberal democracies experience monotonic positional drift toward larger, more redistributive states across multi-decade horizons.

liberal_democracy_managerial_flywheel_driftinferred

viaregulatory.sectoral_licensing

REFUTED — median final drift = -3.00 (13/26 positive, share = 50%). The corpus does not show monotonic statist drift across the liberal-democracy panel.

refuted

Countries in the top quartile of Heritage business freedom in 2024 have higher latest-available account ownership than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.

heritage_business_freedom_account_ownership_current_gapinferred

viaregulatory.sectoral_licensing

SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign + and Welch p=1.952e-17

supported

Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage business freedom in 2024 have higher latest-available account ownership.

heritage_business_freedom_account_ownership_income_region_robustnessinferred

viaregulatory.sectoral_licensing

SUPPORTED — controlled market-score coefficient has expected sign + and p=0.004837

supported

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Sonangol oil enclave governance

YLB state-led lithium industrialisation (Salar de Uyuni)

National Energy Program (NEP) — Canada 1980

CAN·1980