Policies·france_indicative_planning_cgp

France Indicative Planning Cgp

FRA·1945 – 1975candidate

movessectoral licensing↑sectoral subsidy↑trade openness↑spending level↑

What the policy did

The Commissariat général du Plan (CGP), established by de Gaulle's January 1946 decree under Jean Monnet, produced successive multi-year national plans coordinating credit allocation, sectoral investment targets, and price/wage signals across nationalised and private firms. Indicative planning channelled Marshall Aid and domestic credit toward priority sectors (steel, coal, cement, transport) without formal central command, defining the Trente Glorieuses' dirigiste growth model.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↑

sectoral licensing

regulatory.sectoral_licensing

Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).

increased · weak

tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating

Plans operationalised investment authorisations and credit-allocation modalités sector by sector.

↑

sectoral subsidy

fiscal.sectoral_subsidy

Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).

increased · weak

expanded sectoral subsidies

Plan envelopes channelled state credit and direct grants to priority modernisation industries.

↑

trade openness

regulatory.trade_openness

Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.

increased · weak

more open trade

CGP plans incorporated phased tariff reductions consistent with Marshall Plan and EEC commitments.

↑

spending level

fiscal.spending_level

General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.

increased · weak

higher spending share

Public investment programming raised state-directed capital spending as share of national output.

Enacted by

france_trente_glorieuses_indicative_planning_1945_1975

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Canada’s long-run prosperity after the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (1988) and NAFTA (1994) is more associated with market openness than with national industrial-policy initiatives.

canada_market_liberalisation_vs_state_industry_1988_2024inferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'canada_post_1988' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

run pending

Developmentalist East Asian states (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China) pursuing active industrial policy — export-discipline, selective credit, state-directed FDI screening, targeted sector promotion — achieved higher long-run real per-capita GDP growth over 1960-2019 than otherwise-comparable countries starting at similar income levels in 1960.

industrial_policy_developmentalist_states_growthinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.sectoral_licensingfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

SUPPORTED — avg ATT across 4 developmentalist cases (KOR/TWN/SGP/CHN) is +1.088 log-points at 40-yr horizon (~+197%). 4/4 cases above the 30 log-point threshold…

supported

Across a broad panel of countries 1960-2019, higher trade openness predicts faster long-run convergence of real GDP per capita toward the global frontier (the United States) than industrial-policy intensity does.

trade_openness_long_run_income_convergenceinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

PARTIAL — coef=+6.729e-18, p=0.00881; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

In a panel of middle-income countries 1990-2020, export complexity (Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity Index) rises more following reforms that improve foreign market access and reduce domestic entry barriers than following expansions of subsidy-only industrial policy.

export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidyinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

PARTIAL — coef=+4.68e-14, p=0.393; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.

estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred

viaregulatory.trade_openness

PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)

partial

Consumer product variety and price-adjusted welfare improve more after episodes of trade liberalisation and competition-policy reform than after state industrial-policy episodes of comparable duration and scale, in a panel of middle- and high-income countries 1980-2020.

consumer_choice_variety_trade_market_reforminferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.sectoral_licensing

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'competition_reform_episode' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

run pending

Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.

nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effectinferred

viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

run pending

Large welfare states sustain long-run real GDP per capita growth when paired with market flexibility (low product- and labour-market barriers), trade openness, and fiscal discipline (debt-to-GDP below 90%), but not when paired with rigid product and labour markets, in an OECD and rich- country panel 1980-2020.

welfare_state_market_flexibility_complementinferred

viafiscal.spending_levelregulatory.trade_openness

PARTIAL — coef=+3.308e-18, p=0.653; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (Brazil, 1974-1979)

BRA·1974

match

2.2

sectoral subsidyspending levelsectoral licensingtrade openness

Growth and Transformation Plan I (GTP I)

ETH·2010

match

1.9

sectoral subsidyspending levelsectoral licensing

Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II)

ETH·2015