Policies·il_sheshinski_gas_royalty_2011

Sheshinski I natural-gas royalty framework

ISR·2011 – ·enacted 2011-03-30·Likud-led coalitioncandidate

What the policy did

Sheshinski Committee (chaired by Eytan Sheshinski) reported 3 Jan 2011 and its recommendations were enacted 30 Mar 2011 raising the government share of offshore-gas rents from ~30% to ~52-62% via a progressive super-profits levy, following Tamar (2009) and Leviathan (2010) field discoveries. Applied retroactively to active fields.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

sectoral subsidy

fiscal.sectoral_subsidy

Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).

decreased · moderate

reduced sectoral subsidies

Reduced implicit subsidy (below-world rates) to offshore gas concessionaires.

↑

tax corporate

fiscal.tax_corporate

Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.

increased · moderate

higher corporate tax burden

Raised effective government take on gas-sector rents.

Enacted by

israel_netanyahu_likud_second_term_2009_2013

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

The 2022-2026 wave of major-economy industrial-policy programmes — US IRA + CHIPS, EU Critical Raw Materials Act + Net-Zero Industry Act, EU Chips Act, Japan Green Transformation (GX, ¥150tn / ~$1tn announced), Korea K-Chips + Korean New Deal 2.0, China 14th Five-Year Plan + Made-in-China-2025-2.0 with semiconductors and clean energy as national-security frontier — represents the largest coordinated wave of industrial-policy spending in the post-1970s OECD record.

green_industrial_policy_global_chip_race_2022_2026inferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (20)

run pending

Ireland’s long-run convergence from a middle-income to a high-income economy during 1987–2024 is better predicted by trade openness, tax competitiveness, and FDI entry than by classic industrial planning.

ireland_market_opening_fdi_frontier_1987_2024inferred

viafiscal.tax_corporatefiscal.sectoral_subsidy

supported

Biden's IRA/CHIPS industrial policy will show partial success on capacity-building metrics and mixed results on job creation, consistent with the conditional view that industrial policy works where targeting is technically competent and governance is strong.

industrial_policy_semiconductor_chips_act_effectivenessinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

inconclusive — Stacked: (4/4) spec-named semi-specific series unavailable on disk (oecd:STAN_INDUSTRY ISIC C26, bls:CES3133, ilostat:semiconductor employment, c…

run pending

Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.

nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effectinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

run pending

Across a broad panel of countries 1960-2019, higher trade openness predicts faster long-run convergence of real GDP per capita toward the global frontier (the United States) than industrial-policy intensity does.

trade_openness_long_run_income_convergenceinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

PARTIAL — coef=+6.729e-18, p=0.00881; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

China's strongest total factor productivity acceleration occurred during the WTO-accession period (2001-2008) linked to tariff reduction, foreign competition, and regulatory harmonisation, while the subsequent subsidy-heavy state-direction phase (post-2008, intensifying post-2015) is associated with weaker TFP growth and rising capital misallocation.

china_post_wto_market_opening_vs_subsidy_tfpinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

SUPPORTED — shape=ITS, sign matches claim +, mean_gap=+0.1126, z=+3.9

supported

The 2022 US CHIPS and Science Act (~$52bn manufacturing subsidy + 25% ITC) produced a measurable acceleration in announced and realised US semiconductor fab construction starts and capacity additions over 2023- 2027, narrowing the US share-of-global advanced-logic capacity gap relative to Taiwan + South Korea, but the realised capacity addition by 2027 falls materially short of both the headline announcements (Intel Ohio, TSMC Arizona, Samsung Texas, Micron New York) and the pre-CHIPS US share-recovery rhetoric.

chips_act_2022_semiconductor_capacity_2024_2027inferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient obs after listwise deletion (9)

run pending

In a panel of middle-income countries 1990-2020, export complexity (Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity Index) rises more following reforms that improve foreign market access and reduce domestic entry barriers than following expansions of subsidy-only industrial policy.

export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidyinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

PARTIAL — coef=+4.68e-14, p=0.393; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Netherlands Klimaatakkoord + Klimaatwet 2019

NLD·2019

match

1.0

sectoral subsidytax corporate

CREATE: Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises Act (RA 11534)

PHL·2020

match

1.0

tax corporatesectoral subsidy

Inflation Reduction Act 2022 — industrial policy / climate package

USA·2022