Policies·ir_fatf_reengagement_signal_2024

Pezeshkian FATF re-engagement signal

IRN·2024 – present·enacted 2024-09-10·Reformist-aligned Pezeshkian cabinetcandidate

What the policy did

Pezeshkian government publicly revived the case for ratifying the Palermo Convention and the Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) bill, which have been blocked at the Expediency Council since 2018 and underpin Iran's continued FATF blacklist status. No ratification achieved through 2025 under principlist Majles and security- establishment opposition; Iran remains on FATF high-risk jurisdiction list (re-affirmed Feb 2020, no review change through 2025). Signal value: orient cabinet toward banking-channel restoration contingent on nuclear-talks progress.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↑

financial deregulation

regulatory.financial_deregulation

Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.

increased · weak

tighter financial regulation

Executive-level signalling toward FATF compliance; no binding ratification delivered.

Enacted by

iran_pezeshkian_reformist_2024_present

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Major episodes of financial deregulation — the 1999 US Gramm-Leach- Bliley repeal of Glass-Steagall, the 1986 UK Financial Services Act ("Big Bang"), Chile's 1974-1981 banking liberalisation, Sweden's late-1980s credit-market liberalisation, and Japan's 1996-2001 Big Bang — are followed within 10 years by higher-than-baseline incidence of banking crises, measured by the Laeven-Valencia Systemic Banking Crisis Database, and by elevated credit-to-GDP gaps per BIS.

financial_deregulation_crisis_vulnerabilityinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

SUPPORTED — sign matches claim +, ATT=+0.04145, p=3.34e-07, N=302, treated_countries=8

supported

The 2007-2009 global financial crisis originated in household-debt-financed consumption sustaining aggregate demand despite stagnant real wages, a Minsky-plus-Marx pattern.

gfc_household_debt_wage_stagnation_linkinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=-0.01111, p=0; claim direction not auto-inferred

partial

In an OECD panel 2000-2023, increases in OECD Product Market Regulation (PMR) stringency and increases in regulatory uncertainty (proxied by year-to-year changes in the OECD PMR sub-indices) are negatively associated with private non-residential investment as a share of GDP, with effects concentrated in capital-intensive long-duration sectors.

hayek_regulatory_uncertainty_investment_chillinginferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

REFUTED — coef=-3.98 (sign opposite claim +), p=0

refuted

In a broad-country panel 1990-2020, mortgage-market liberalisation episodes (abolition of interest-rate caps, reduction of down-payment requirements, privatisation of state mortgage banks, and introduction of securitisation) predict higher homeownership rates, higher residential investment as a share of GDP, and lower housing-rent-to-income ratios, controlling for income growth, demographic structure, and urbanisation.

mortgage_market_liberalisation_homeownership_panelinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=+0.972, p=0.606 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

partial

The 1988-1993 Nordic banking crises (Norway 1988-1991, Sweden 1991-1992, Finland 1991-1993) are a canonical post-deregulation credit-boom-bust panel.

banking_crisis_nordic_1991_1993_panelinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

SUPPORTED

supported

In the Schularick-Taylor cross-country macrohistory panel restricted to the post-1980 era, sustained acceleration of bank credit to the private non-financial sector relative to GDP raises the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis within a five-year forward window.

banking_crisis_schularick_taylor_credit_boom_panel_post1980inferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.001376 (sign matches claim +), p=9.27e-07

supported

Across countries 1990-2020, higher capital-account openness (proxied by EFW area-4 freedom-to-trade-internationally sub- components covering capital controls, plus IMF AREAER-derived binary capital-control intensity where available) predicts higher subsequent 10-year real per-capita GDP growth, conditional on initial income, rule-of-law level, trade openness, and financial- development depth.

liberal_capital_account_openness_growth_premium_panelinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

PARTIAL — coef=+1.115e-17, p=0.0255; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

Liberal democracies experience monotonic positional drift toward larger, more redistributive states across multi-decade horizons.

liberal_democracy_managerial_flywheel_driftinferred

viaregulatory.financial_deregulation

REFUTED — median final drift = -3.00 (13/26 positive, share = 50%). The corpus does not show monotonic statist drift across the liberal-democracy panel.

refuted

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

DIFC Establishment Law (Federal Law 8 and Dubai Law 9 of 2004)

ARE·2004

match

0.7

financial deregulation

Dubai International Financial Centre launch

ARE·2004

match

0.7

financial deregulation

Corralito — Decreto 1570/2001 banking freeze

ARG·2001