IESET.
Policies·jp_maekawa_report_1986

Maekawa Report on Economic Structural Adjustment (Japan 1986)

JPN·1986 – 1987·enacted 1986-04-07·LDP (Nakasone cabinet)candidate
movestrade openness↑product market competition↑labour market flexibility↑

What the policy did

Report of the Advisory Group on Economic Structural Adjustment for International Harmony (chair Haruo Maekawa, ex-BoJ Governor), submitted 7 Apr 1986 to PM Nakasone. Urged transition from export- led to domestic-demand-led growth via financial-market opening, housing-market deregulation, working-hour reduction (40-hour week), distribution-sector liberalisation, and procurement opening. A 'New Maekawa Report' followed May 1987. Provided intellectual framing for bubble-era domestic-demand expansion.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
↑
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · weak
more open trade
Procurement and standards-opening recommendations.
↑
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · weak
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Distribution-sector deregulation recommendations (Large-Scale Retail Store Law revisited later).
↑
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · weak
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
40-hour working-week recommendation led to Labour Standards Law revisions 1987.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.
estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.product_market_competition
PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)
partial
Across a broad panel of economies 1980-2020, market reforms (privatisation, trade liberalisation, and price decontrol) produce durable gains in real GDP per capita growth only when rule-of-law scores exceed a minimum threshold (WGI Rule of Law > -0.5, approximately the 40th percentile of the global distribution).
rule_of_law_market_reform_complementarityinferred
viaregulatory.product_market_competitionregulatory.trade_openness
REFUTED — coef=-0.1483 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00481
refuted
Germany's Agenda 2010 labour-market reforms worked within the Ordoliberal framework precisely because they preserved collective-bargaining institutions and vocational-training architecture; the same reforms imposed on UK-style labour markets produced larger inequality increases.
labour_market_reform_institutional_complementarityinferred
viaregulatory.labour_market_flexibilityregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.product_market_competition
PARTIAL — coef=-7.366e+04, p=0.927 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
partial
In a broad-country panel 1990-2019, greater labour-market flexibility — measured by lower OECD EPL overall strictness, higher ease-of-hiring scores, and absence of centralized wage bargaining — predicts higher employment-to- population ratios and faster real GDP per capita growth, controlling for institutional quality, education, and trade openness.
labour_market_flexibility_employment_growth_panelinferred
viaregulatory.labour_market_flexibilityregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.product_market_competition
PARTIAL — coef=-1.251, p=0.162 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
partial
Labour-market flexibilisation reforms improve unemployment outcomes in countries with strong active-labour-market-policy (ALMP) complementarities (Denmark flexicurity post-1994, Germany Agenda 2010 / Hartz I-IV 2003-2005) but produce inequality increases without commensurate employment gains in countries lacking institutional ALMP infrastructure.
labour_market_reform_almp_complementarity_effectinferred
viaregulatory.labour_market_flexibilityregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.product_market_competition
SUPPORTED — coef=-5.815 (sign matches claim -), p=8.21e-05
supported
Canada’s long-run prosperity after the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (1988) and NAFTA (1994) is more associated with market openness than with national industrial-policy initiatives.
canada_market_liberalisation_vs_state_industry_1988_2024inferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.product_market_competition
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'canada_post_1988' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects
run pending
Australia’s long expansion after the Hawke-Keating reforms (1983–1996) — including tariff cuts, financial deregulation, competition-policy introduction, and fiscal consolidation — is better predicted by market liberalisation than by sector-specific state direction.
australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_runinferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.product_market_competition
PARTIAL — coef=-0.03935, p=0.076 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive
partial
US GDP per capita (PPP, constant $) exceeds the EU15 weighted average by approximately 50% as of 2023, with the gap widening from ~20% in 2000 after converging during 1980-1995.
us_eu_gdp_per_capita_divergence_policy_causesinferred
viaregulatory.product_market_competitionregulatory.trade_opennessregulatory.labour_market_flexibility
PARTIAL — coef=+0.1801, p=0.565 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Vietnam CPTPP entry 2019
VNM·2019
match
1.6
trade opennessproduct market competitionlabour market flexibility
Convertibility Plan (Plan Cavallo) — Argentina 1991-2002
ARG·1991
match
1.4
trade opennessproduct market competition
Hawke-Keating reform package (1983-1996)
AUS·1983
match
1.4
product market competitiontrade openness
Hawke-Keating market reforms — Australia 1983-1996
AUS·1983
match
1.4
trade opennessproduct market competition
New Economic Policy — Decree 21060 (Bolivia stabilisation 1985)
BOL·1985
match
1.4
trade opennessproduct market competition
Reform and Opening (改革开放) — 1978
CHN·1978
match
1.4
product market competitiontrade openness
China WTO Accession 2001
CHN·2001
match
1.4
trade opennessproduct market competition
Deng Xiaoping's Southern Tour — reform reset 1992
CHN·1992
match
1.4
product market competitiontrade openness

References