IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·asian_convergence_vs_western_stagnation_2000_2023

From 2000 to 2023, Asian economies that continued market-oriented institutional reform from a low starting GDP-per-capita base — China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia — converged rapidly on Western income levels, with cumulative log GDP-per-capita-PPP growth materially greater than incumbent Western economies.

The Western group showed heterogeneous outcomes — US and some Nordic economies matched or exceeded Asian convergence on levels, while continental EU (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) and UK lagged. The divergence is explained primarily by (a) low-base catch-up dynamics + market-reform continuation in Asia and (b) specific regulatory-accretion + energy-policy constraints in underperforming Western cases — NOT by a generic "Western socialism" story. The framework's test: decomposing the cross-regional divergence into catch-up dynamics vs policy-regime effects.

PARTIALengine/runs/asian_convergence_vs_western_stagnation_2000_2023

PARTIAL — coef=+4.616e-17, p=0.912; effect magnitude effectively zero

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+4.616e-17, p=0.912; effect magnitude effectively zero

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 24 country or place units from 2000 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Asian treated
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Income growth cumulative 2000 2023
  • Poverty share decline
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

1 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/asian_convergence_vs_western_stagnation_2000_2023
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:39Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

From 2000 to 2023, Asian economies that continued market-oriented institutional reform from a low starting GDP-per-capita base — China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia — converged rapidly on Western income levels, with cumulative log GDP-per-capita-PPP growth materially greater than incumbent Western economies. The Western group showed heterogeneous outcomes — US and some Nordic economies matched or exceeded Asian convergence on levels, while continental EU (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) and UK lagged. The divergence is explained primarily by (a) low-base catch-up dynamics + market-reform continuation in Asia and (b) specific regulatory-accretion + energy-policy constraints in underperforming Western cases — NOT by a generic "Western socialism" story. The framework's test: decomposing the cross-regional divergence into catch-up dynamics vs policy-regime effects.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is falsified if cumulative log GDP-per-capita-PPP growth of the Asian treated group mean minus the Western comparison group mean over 2000–2023 is less than 0.30 log-points (~35% relative), OR the rank order is reversed (Western mean grows faster than Asian mean in log terms). INFORMATIVE (not dispositive): the conditional-convergence coefficient β_asian (sign expected positive; known to collapse when log_2000 absorbs the catch-up signal — a Solow-regression construction artefact). Reported in diagnostics as mechanism colour only.

formal test & threshold
test:      asian_convergence_vs_western_growth_differential
threshold: PRIMARY: cumulative_log_growth(asian_mean) - cumulative_log_growth(western_mean) >= 0.30 INFORMATIVE: sign(beta_asian_dummy) > 0 (not gating the verdict) METHOD_VALID: WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD for all 24 countries, 2020-2021 COVID years excluded per sample.exclusion_rules.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
year
Clustering
country
Sample
24 countries · 2000 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Two-step design: Step 1 (descriptive): compute cumulative log GDP-per-capita-PPP growth 2000-2023 per country. Rank countries by growth. Expected: Asian treated group in the top half; incumbent Western group in the bottom half on cumulative log-growth, but NOT on levels (Western still higher in 2023 on absolute GDP-per-capita). Step 2 (conditional-convergence test): pooled cross-sectional regression of 2023 log GDP-per-capita on 2000 log level + asian_treated dummy + controls. Coefficient on the dummy, controlling for starting level, identifies Asian-specific excess growth conditional on initial income (convergence rate differential). Secondary decomposition (data-gated): wealth-tier expansion using Credit Suisse / UBS Global Wealth Report (millionaire count by country, annual 2000-present) + Forbes billionaire count annual 2000-present. These are specialized data sources requiring custom fetchers; pre-registered here for v1.1 run once fetchers land. Primary outcome test: cumulative log GDP-per-capita-PPP growth gap between groups. Wealth-tier results inform mechanism (growth-driven vs capital-concentration-driven).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
gdp_growth_cumulative_2000_2023
outcome
constructed:23-year log-difference of NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 5
log_difference
poverty_share_decline
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
percentage_point_change
asian_treated
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for country in treated set (10 Asian)tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_ppp_2000_level
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — asian_convergence_vs_western_stagnation_2000_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+4.616e-17, p=0.912; effect magnitude effectively zero

Pre-registration

  • Claim: From 2000 to 2023, Asian economies that continued market-oriented institutional reform from a low starting GDP-per-capita base — China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia — converged rapidly on Western income levels, with cumulative log GDP-per-capita-PPP growth materially greater than incumbent Western economies. The Western group showed heterogeneous outcomes — US and some Nordic economies matched or exceeded Asian convergence on levels, while continental EU (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) and UK lagged. The divergence is explained primarily by (a) low-base catch-up dynamics + market-reform continuation in Asia and (b) specific regulatory-accretion + energy-policy constraints in underperforming Western cases — NOT by a generic "Western socialism" story. The framework's test: decomposing the cross-regional divergence into catch-up dynamics vs policy-regime effects.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is falsified if cumulative log GDP-per-capita-PPP growth of the Asian treated group mean minus the Western comparison group mean over 2000–2023 is less than 0.30 log-points (~35% relative), OR the rank order is reversed (Western mean grows faster than Asian mean in log terms). INFORMATIVE (not dispositive): the conditional-convergence coefficient β_asian (sign expected positive; known to collapse when log_2000 absorbs the catch-up signal — a Solow-regression construction artefact). Reported in diagnostics as mechanism colour only.
  • Falsification test: asian_convergence_vs_western_growth_differential

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +4.616e-17
  • Std error: 4.183e-16
  • p-value: 0.912
  • Observations: 408, countries: 17
  • Within R²: 1
  • Fixed effects: entity=False, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → poverty_share_decline (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for country in treated set (10 Asian) → asian_treated (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=576)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD (year=2000) → log_gdp_pc_ppp_2000_level (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: 23-year log-difference of NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD (outcome, name=gdp_growth_cumulative_2000_2023) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This hypothesis is THE "Asia rose while West stagnated" test, sharpened to what the data can identify. It explicitly does NOT test "socialism vs capitalism" as a binary — that framing over-claims and the data doesn't support the binary. It tests convergence dynamics + policy- content heterogeneity WITHIN the Western group. Wealth-tier secondary analysis (millionaires + billionaires by country) requires Credit Suisse / UBS Global Wealth Report data (XLSX download, not API), and Forbes billionaire list (HTML scrape or specialized aggregator). Fetchers needed; pre-registration now, run in v1.1. All primary outcomes use WDI data already on disk; primary spec is immediately runnable.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.