IESET.
Policies·bd_imf_ecf_continuation_2024

IMF ECF/EFF/RSF programme continuation and augmentation

BGD·2024 – presentcandidate
movestrade openness↑sectoral subsidy↓central bank independence↑

What the policy did

The interim government continued the $4.7bn IMF Extended Credit Facility / Extended Fund Facility / Resilience and Sustainability Facility programme approved January 2023 and negotiated an augmentation to ~$5.3bn in mid-2024, preserving conditionality on crawling-peg FX liberalisation (May 2024), revenue mobilisation (VAT broadening, income-tax file expansion), subsidy rationalisation (electricity, fertiliser), and financial-sector reform.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
↑
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · weak
more open trade
FX liberalisation and tariff rationalisation under conditionality.
↓
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · moderate
reduced sectoral subsidies
Electricity and fertiliser subsidy reduction under programme.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · weak
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
Rate-cap removal; move to policy-rate-based framework.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Canada’s long-run prosperity after the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (1988) and NAFTA (1994) is more associated with market openness than with national industrial-policy initiatives.
canada_market_liberalisation_vs_state_industry_1988_2024inferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'canada_post_1988' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects
run pending
Across a broad panel of countries 1960-2019, higher trade openness predicts faster long-run convergence of real GDP per capita toward the global frontier (the United States) than industrial-policy intensity does.
trade_openness_long_run_income_convergenceinferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
PARTIAL — coef=+6.729e-18, p=0.00881; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
In a panel of middle-income countries 1990-2020, export complexity (Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity Index) rises more following reforms that improve foreign market access and reduce domestic entry barriers than following expansions of subsidy-only industrial policy.
export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidyinferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
PARTIAL — coef=+4.68e-14, p=0.393; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.
estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred
viaregulatory.trade_openness
PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)
partial
Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.
nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effectinferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING
run pending
Hong Kong's long-run income convergence to the productivity frontier without classic industrial policy (sectoral targeting, directed credit, national champions, or SOE promotion) matches or exceeds that of developmentalist East Asian comparators after controlling for initial income, human capital, and trade openness.
hong_kong_no_industrial_policy_frontier_comparisoninferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
REFUTED — coef=-0.06133 (sign opposite claim +), p=7.33e-15
refuted
Consumer product variety and price-adjusted welfare improve more after episodes of trade liberalisation and competition-policy reform than after state industrial-policy episodes of comparable duration and scale, in a panel of middle- and high-income countries 1980-2020.
consumer_choice_variety_trade_market_reforminferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'competition_reform_episode' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects
run pending
East Asian high-performing economies (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong) achieved superior long-run total factor productivity and manufacturing productivity growth because export-market discipline forced competitive efficiency and technology upgrading, whereas economies that relied on protected domestic industrial policy without rigorous export exposure (Malaysia, Thailand in select sectors) experienced weaker long-run productivity.
east_asia_export_discipline_vs_domestic_protectioninferred
viaregulatory.trade_opennessfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — interaction term requested but no loadable constructed interaction variable is defined. The generic panel_fe runner would otherwise …
run pending

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

New Economic Policy — Decree 21060 (Bolivia stabilisation 1985)
BOL·1985
match
2.3
central bank independencetrade opennesssectoral subsidy
Rogernomics — New Zealand market reforms 1984-1990
NZL·1984
match
2.3
trade opennesssectoral subsidycentral bank independence
Balcerowicz Plan — Poland shock therapy 1990
POL·1990
match
2.3
trade opennesssectoral subsidycentral bank independence
Yeltsin-Gaidar shock therapy + voucher privatisation (Russia, 1992-1994)
RUS·1992
match
1.8
sectoral subsidycentral bank independencetrade openness
Russia — Gaidar shock therapy 1992
RUS·1992
match
1.8
trade opennesssectoral subsidycentral bank independence
Czechoslovak price liberalisation 1991
CSK·1991
match
1.5
trade opennesssectoral subsidy
Balcerowicz Plan — Polish shock therapy 1990
POL·1990
match
1.5
trade opennesssectoral subsidy
El Gran Viraje — IMF Paquete Económico 1989
VEN·1989
match
1.5
trade opennesssectoral subsidy

References