IESET.
Policies·ecuador_dollarisation_law_2000

Ecuador Dollarisation Law 2000

ECU·2000 presentcandidate
movescentral bank independencemonetary expansion directionproperty rightsfinancial deregulation~

What the policy did

Ley para la Transformación Económica del Ecuador (Trole I) of March 2000 fixed the sucre at 25,000 per US dollar, mandated conversion of all balance-sheet items to USD, and eliminated the central bank's authority to issue base money. The law followed President Mahuad's January 2000 announcement and a hyperinflation/banking-crisis collapse, anchoring monetary policy through outright greenback adoption.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · weak
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
Abolition of domestic-currency issuance removed political control over monetary policy.
monetary expansion direction
monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
decreased · weak
contractionary (balance sheet shrink, rates above Taylor)
Loss of sucre printing capacity sharply contracted the discretionary money-supply path.
property rights
institutional.property_rights
Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.
increased · weak
stronger property rights
USD-denominated contracts eliminated devaluation risk on savings and long-tenor obligations.
~
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
mixed · weak
Trole I freed FX dealings while imposing tighter prudential rules on a now-foreign-currency banking system.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Zimbabwean property-rights deterioration post-2000 (commercial-farm expropriation without compensation) precedes hyperinflation and output collapse; institutional mechanism is necessary, not merely monetary.
zimbabwe_property_rights_output_linkinferred
viainstitutional.property_rightsmonetary.monetary_expansion_direction
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING
run pending
Zimbabwe's Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP, 2000-2002) combined with Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe deficit monetisation produced a canonical institutional and economic collapse 2000-2009 that manifests as >=7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from an independent data source and measuring a different causal layer (agricultural-capacity destruction, monetary collapse, output contraction, human-capital flight, humanitarian stress).
zimbabwe_hyperinflation_land_reform_output_collapse_2000_2009inferred
viainstitutional.property_rightsmonetary.monetary_expansion_directionregulatory.financial_deregulation
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']
run pending
Truss 2022 mini-budget shows that unfunded fiscal expansion above the ZLB triggers sharp bond-market and currency responses through expected-inflation and risk-premium channels.
unfunded_fiscal_expansion_above_zlb_bond_market_responseinferred
viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directionmonetary.central_bank_independence
SUPPORTED — GBP/USD trough on 2022-09-26 (1.0703) was 5.02% below the 2022-09-22 pre-announcement close (1.1269); log-decline +0.0515 clears the 3.0% threshold …
supported
The Soviet central-planning system, having already exhibited TFP stagnation 1970-1989, underwent a canonical institutional and economic collapse 1989-1998 as plan-enforcement was withdrawn without functioning market institutions in place.
soviet_union_central_planning_gdp_collapse_1989_1991inferred
viainstitutional.property_rightsmonetary.monetary_expansion_direction
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']
run pending
Zimbabwean land reform 2000-2008 redistributed ownership to previously excluded populations; the inflation crisis was driven by external sanctions and fiscal-military pressures, not by the redistributive policy itself.
zimbabwe_land_reform_cause_decompositioninferred
viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directioninstitutional.property_rightsmonetary.central_bank_independence
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)
run pending
Venezuela's post-1999 socialist policy regime (Chávez 1999-2013 + Maduro 2013-present, characterised by FX controls, price controls, mass nationalisations, PDVSA politicisation, and 2014+ monetary financing of fiscal deficits) produced a canonical institutional and economic collapse that manifests as ≥7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from an independent data source and measuring a different causal layer.
venezuela_chavismo_canonical_case_multi_metricinferred
viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directioninstitutional.property_rights
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']
run pending
Across the 2008-2014 ZLB era and the 2020-2021 pandemic-response window, large-scale de-facto monetary finance of fiscal expansion in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone did not produce headline-CPI inflation consistent with naive quantity-theoretic monetisation predictions: cumulative central-bank balance-sheet expansion exceeded 15% of GDP while CPI YoY remained below 3% in each economy across both windows.
monetary_finance_zlb_no_inflationinferred
viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directionmonetary.central_bank_independence
REFUTED — CPI threshold breach: USA zlb_2008_2014 peak 3.81% in 2008; USA covid_2020_2021 peak 4.68% in 2021; Eurozone CPI not loaded
refuted
Every documented modern hyperinflation episode (Cagan ≥50% monthly inflation, Hanke-Krus catalogue) since 1900 falls into one of two categories: (a) the issuing state had material foreign-currency or gold-clause obligations, hard-currency-pegged debt, or external market dependency that left it operating effectively as a currency-user (Weimar reparations, Hungary 1945-46 occupation obligations, Yugoslavia FX debt, Zimbabwe USD obligations 2007+, Venezuela USD oil revenue dependency, Argentina USD debt, Lebanon USD-pegged banking system, Turkey 2021-2024 FX-denominated debt), or (b) the issuing state experienced a documented physical supply collapse independent of the monetary regime (Weimar Ruhr occupation, Hungary post-WW2 occupation/reparation, Zimbabwe land-reform output collapse, Venezuela oil-sector collapse).
currency_user_vs_issuer_hyperinflation_classificationinferred
viamonetary.monetary_expansion_directionmonetary.central_bank_independenceregulatory.financial_deregulation
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING
run pending

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.