IESET.
Policies·id_prabowo_free_meals_2025

Makan Bergizi Gratis (free nutritious-meal programme) 2025

IDN·2025 present·enacted 2025-01-06·Gerindra-led Koalisi Indonesia Maju Pluscandidate
movestransfer expansionspending levelsectoral subsidy

What the policy did

Prabowo's flagship campaign commitment, launched 6 January 2025 by the newly-created National Nutrition Agency (Badan Gizi Nasional). Targets universal free meals for ~83 million beneficiaries — schoolchildren from pre-school to senior high, pregnant women, and lactating mothers — at full rollout 2029. Year-one (2025) budget ~Rp 71 trillion for ~19.5m beneficiaries; steady-state rollout costed at ~Rp 450 trillion/year (~2% of GDP). Delivered through ~30,000 Satuan Pelayanan Pemenuhan Gizi kitchens using local supply chains. Largest new in-kind transfer programme in Indonesian fiscal history.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · strong
larger transfer footprint
~2% of GDP in-kind universal child/maternal nutrition transfer at full rollout.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Steady-state programme raises primary spending share ~1.5-2pp of GDP.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · weak
expanded sectoral subsidies
Local-sourcing mandate subsidises domestic food producers and SMEs.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Large welfare states sustain long-run real GDP per capita growth when paired with market flexibility (low product- and labour-market barriers), trade openness, and fiscal discipline (debt-to-GDP below 90%), but not when paired with rigid product and labour markets, in an OECD and rich- country panel 1980-2020.
welfare_state_market_flexibility_complementinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — coef=+3.308e-18, p=0.653; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Large-scale universal or near-universal transfer programmes produce a three-order causal chain.
universal_transfer_programmes_labour_force_participation_declineinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.spending_level
partial — Prime-age LFP fell by ≥1.0pp in 2/5 cases (threshold for SUPPORTED: ≥3). First-order improved in 3/4 cases. Mixed: consistent with the spec's design-d…
partial
Truss 2022 mini-budget shows that unfunded fiscal expansion above the ZLB triggers sharp bond-market and currency responses through expected-inflation and risk-premium channels.
unfunded_fiscal_expansion_above_zlb_bond_market_responseinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
SUPPORTED — GBP/USD trough on 2022-09-26 (1.0703) was 5.02% below the 2022-09-22 pre-announcement close (1.1269); log-decline +0.0515 clears the 3.0% threshold …
supported
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_tax_burden_under5_mortality_current_gapinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.spending_level
PARTIAL — gap sign/magnitude not decisive (diff=-1.127, p=0.811)
partial
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality.
heritage_tax_burden_under5_mortality_income_region_robustnessinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.spending_level
PARTIAL — controlled coefficient not decisive (coef=-0.3884, p=0.7236)
partial
Universal single-payer healthcare systems (NHS, Canadian Medicare) produce lower per-capita healthcare expenditure with equal or better life-expectancy outcomes than the US multi-payer system.
single_payer_cost_outcome_comparisoninferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansion
supported_subset — cost test PASSES (USA per-capita PPP $10957 vs GBR/CAN mean $5663, ratio 1.93x > 1.5); single-payer matched-or-beat USA on 4/5 tested outcome…
supported
Rapid market liberalisation (price decontrol, mass privatisation, trade opening) under weak institutions produces large short-run welfare losses—rising mortality, falling life expectancy, rising inequality, and collapsing output—that may persist for at least a decade, compared to gradual reformers or non-reformers at similar initial income levels.
free_market_shock_therapy_social_costinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — mean_gap=-3.156, |gap|/pre_sd=1.8, p_perm=0.367; claim direction ambiguous
partial
Higher broad state-consumption burden proxies predict worse child-mortality nutrition-risk outcomes.
state_agriculture_controls_malnutritioninferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
PARTIAL — coef=+1.143, p=0.105 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

References