Policies·il_sugary_drinks_tax_2021

Israel sugary-drinks and disposable-ware excise (2021)

ISR·2022 – 2022·enacted 2021-11-14·Bennett–Lapid change coalitioncandidate

movesenvironmental stringency↑tax progressivity↑

What the policy did

Excise on sugar-sweetened beverages and separate levy on disposable tableware, both introduced through the 2021 Arrangements Law. Sugary- drinks tax modelled on UK SDIL; disposable-plastics levy raised prices roughly fourfold. Both measures repealed by the incoming Netanyahu VI government in 2023, making the episode a natural short-window policy experiment.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↑

environmental stringency

regulatory.environmental_stringency

Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.

increased · weak

more stringent environmental rules

Pigouvian levy on single-use plastics.

↑

tax progressivity

fiscal.tax_progressivity

Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).

increased · weak

more progressive (higher top rates, wider spread, larger targeted credits)

Health-externality excise with earmarking, mildly progressive in design intent (contested in incidence).

Enacted by

israel_bennett_change_coalition_2021_2022

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

German industrial gross value added, manufacturing output, and real household income diverged materially from a synthetic-Germany donor- pool counterfactual over 2018-2025, and a variance decomposition across candidate channels attributes the majority of the divergence to regulatory-channel factors (Environmental Policy Stringency index increase post-2017, nuclear-phase-out schedule, single-supplier Russian gas dependency lock-in, industrial emission and reporting rules) rather than to fiscal-channel factors (general government consumption and tax burden were broadly stable across the Merkel late-term and Scholz years, with the debt brake in effect until 2023).

germany_decline_2018_2025_regulatory_not_fiscalinferred

viaregulatory.environmental_stringencyfiscal.tax_progressivity

partial — DEU below synthetic by -0.251 cumulative over 2018-2022 (sign correct), but magnitude or placebo p=0.36363636363636365 below pre-registered thresholds…

partial

In the cross-country panel of advanced economies post-1980, the top-1 percent share of total pre-tax national income exhibits a structural break upward in countries that adopted the Anglo-American liberalisation package (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and a flat-or-mildly- rising trajectory in coordinated-market economies (Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands), even though both groups experienced comparable real GDP per capita growth.

top_1pct_income_share_growth_decouplinginferred

viafiscal.tax_progressivityregulatory.environmental_stringency

SUPPORTED — coef=-0.1813 (sign matches claim -), p=4.31e-06

supported

Chilean post-Pinochet tax progressivity reforms — Concertación-era Aylwin-Frei marginal-rate increases 1990-1995, Bachelet 2014 reform raising corporate rate from 20 to 27 percent + DTA tightening, Boric 2022-2024 reform attempts — produced gradual reductions in the Chilean top-1 pretax income share by at least 1.5 percentage points over 1990-2024 vs Latin-American synthetic comparator pool, with most of the level shift concentrated in 1990-2000 rather than the recent reform attempts.

tax_inequality_chile_post_pinochet_progressivityinferred

viafiscal.tax_progressivity

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

run pending

Greek Memorandum-era tax hikes 2010-2018 (top marginal income rate raised to 45 percent, VAT hikes to 24 percent standard, ENFIA recurring property tax 2014, solidarity surcharge 2011-2019) raised the disposable-income Gini coefficient by at least 1.5 Gini-points relative to Eurozone- comparator synthetic control over the period, with the regressivity driven by VAT and property-tax incidence rather than income-tax progressivity.

tax_inequality_greece_troika_tax_hikes_2010_2018inferred

viafiscal.tax_progressivity

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+3.175, |gap|/pre_sd=3.7, p_perm=0.333 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

partial

Post-apartheid South African tax structure (top marginal income rate raised to 45 percent in 2017, capital-gains inclusion ratio raised 2012 + 2016, recurring property-tax effective burden via municipal rates) produced a measurable reduction in the South African top-1 pretax income share over 1995-2024 vs SADC synthetic comparator pool, with the recurring property-tax channel contributing more than the marginal-income-rate channel to the distributional effect.

tax_inequality_south_africa_property_tax_burdeninferred

viafiscal.tax_progressivity

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=5, donors=0)

run pending

Indigenous-managed parcels in the Amazon basin (BRA, PER, COL, ECU, BOL), Canadian First-Nations comanagement areas, and Australian Indigenous Protected Areas retain at least 20% more above-ground biomass per hectare than biome-matched state- protected and private parcels over 2003-2023, after controlling for slope, accessibility, and pre-treatment biome composition.

indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premiuminferred

viaregulatory.environmental_stringency

REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-24.79, p=0.0806, N=70, treated_countries=4

refuted

Progressive income-tax marginal rates (up to roughly 70% top rate) have been compatible with strong growth in post-war US 1945-1980 and Nordics, falsifying extreme-Laffer-curve positions.

top_marginal_rate_growth_tradeoffinferred

viafiscal.tax_progressivity

PARTIAL — coef=+0.0006927, p=0.558 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

Countries in the top quartile of Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have lower latest-available extreme-poverty headcount than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.

heritage_tax_burden_extreme_poverty_current_gapinferred

viafiscal.tax_progressivity

PARTIAL — gap sign/magnitude not decisive (diff=1.296, p=0.7399)

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Oekosoziale Steuerreform 2022 — national CO2 price with Klimabonus rebate

AUT·2022

match

0.9

environmental stringencytax progressivity

Germany national CO2 pricing for buildings and transport (BEHG)

DEU·2021

match

0.8

environmental stringencytax progressivity

Austrian Hainburg Au hydropower project cancellation 1984

AUT·1984