IESET.
Policies·pe_reactiva_peru_covid_response_2020

Reactiva Peru Covid Response 2020

PER·2018 2020candidate
movesrule of lawjudicial independencetransfer expansionspending level

What the policy did

Reactiva Peru, the flagship credit-guarantee programme of the 2020 COVID response under the Vizcarra government, channelled state-backed liquidity to firms via the banking system and BCRP repo operations. The programme was among the largest emerging-market private-credit support schemes relative to GDP, intended to preserve payroll and supplier chains during the lockdown shock. Subsequent reviews flagged targeting weaknesses including allocations to non-formal beneficiaries.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
increased · weak
stronger rule of law
Programme operated through statutory MEF/BCRP rules with audit trails on guarantee allocations.
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
increased · weak
stronger judicial independence
Co-enacted with broader Vizcarra anti-corruption agenda governing emergency procurement and credit oversight.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · weak
larger transfer footprint
State guarantees on private bank lending acted as a contingent transfer to firms preserving payrolls.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · weak
higher spending share
Guarantee programme materially raised contingent fiscal liabilities and realised spending on defaults.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Large welfare states sustain long-run real GDP per capita growth when paired with market flexibility (low product- and labour-market barriers), trade openness, and fiscal discipline (debt-to-GDP below 90%), but not when paired with rigid product and labour markets, in an OECD and rich- country panel 1980-2020.
welfare_state_market_flexibility_complementinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — coef=+3.308e-18, p=0.653; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Large-scale universal or near-universal transfer programmes produce a three-order causal chain.
universal_transfer_programmes_labour_force_participation_declineinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.spending_level
partial — Prime-age LFP fell by ≥1.0pp in 2/5 cases (threshold for SUPPORTED: ≥3). First-order improved in 3/4 cases. Mixed: consistent with the spec's design-d…
partial
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage judicial effectiveness in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_judicial_effectiveness_under5_mortality_current_gapinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansioninstitutional.judicial_independence
SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign - and Welch p=4.272e-10
supported
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage judicial effectiveness in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality.
heritage_judicial_effectiveness_under5_mortality_income_region_robustnessinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansioninstitutional.judicial_independence
SUPPORTED — controlled market-score coefficient has expected sign - and p=0.0374
supported
The v1 decomposition (three channels: WGI gov effectiveness, WGI rule of law, IMF debt/GDP) left 98% of the Nordic-vs-Southern-Europe log GDP/capita gap unexplained.
nordic_outcome_persistence_decomposition_v2inferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.spending_level
PARTIAL — coef=-0.1578, p=0.211 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
partial
Following El Salvador's perceived success with the régimen de excepción (March 2022 onward) and the homicide-rate collapse, multiple Latin American jurisdictions enacted Bukele-style emergency measures: Honduras (Estado de Excepción in select municipalities, December 2022), Ecuador (Estado de Excepción + designation of gangs as terrorist organisations, January 2024), Peru (Estado de Emergencia in Lima/Callao, 2023-).
latam_bukele_imitation_effect_homicide_security_stateinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawinstitutional.judicial_independence
PARTIAL — ATT=+0.03571, p=0.598, N=99, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)
partial
Across countries 1996-2023, higher WGI Rule of Law (RL) scores predict higher subsequent real per-capita GDP growth, conditional on standard controls (initial income, investment share, trade openness, demographic composition).
rule_of_law_institutional_growthinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — coef=+5.028e-17, p=0.0526; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage judicial effectiveness in 2024 have higher latest-available life expectancy than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_judicial_effectiveness_life_expectancy_current_gapinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawinstitutional.judicial_independencefiscal.transfer_expansion
SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign + and Welch p=1.773e-16
supported

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.