IESET.
Policies·pe_vizcarra_vacancy_nov_2020

Vizcarra Vacancy Nov 2020

PER·2018 2020candidate
movesrule of lawjudicial independencetransfer expansionspending level

What the policy did

Congressional vacancy of President Martín Vizcarra in November 2020 on grounds of "permanent moral incapacity," which removed the executive amid an active anti-corruption agenda and triggered a brief succession crisis culminating in the Manuel Merino interim government and rapid replacement by Francisco Sagasti. The episode shaped Peru's institutional and rule-of-law trajectory and constrained the policy bandwidth of the technocratic governments that followed.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
increased · weak
stronger rule of law
Constitutional Tribunal review of the vacancy reaffirmed procedural rule-of-law boundaries on impeachment.
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
increased · weak
stronger judicial independence
Independent prosecution of corruption cases continued through the succession alongside Vizcarra's reform legacy.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · weak
larger transfer footprint
Successor Sagasti government extended Vizcarra-era pandemic transfer programmes during the political handover.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · weak
higher spending share
Continued elevated COVID-era primary spending across the late-2020 succession as transfer programmes ran on.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Large welfare states sustain long-run real GDP per capita growth when paired with market flexibility (low product- and labour-market barriers), trade openness, and fiscal discipline (debt-to-GDP below 90%), but not when paired with rigid product and labour markets, in an OECD and rich- country panel 1980-2020.
welfare_state_market_flexibility_complementinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — coef=+3.308e-18, p=0.653; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Large-scale universal or near-universal transfer programmes produce a three-order causal chain.
universal_transfer_programmes_labour_force_participation_declineinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.spending_level
partial — Prime-age LFP fell by ≥1.0pp in 2/5 cases (threshold for SUPPORTED: ≥3). First-order improved in 3/4 cases. Mixed: consistent with the spec's design-d…
partial
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage judicial effectiveness in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_judicial_effectiveness_under5_mortality_current_gapinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansioninstitutional.judicial_independence
SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign - and Welch p=4.272e-10
supported
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage judicial effectiveness in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality.
heritage_judicial_effectiveness_under5_mortality_income_region_robustnessinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansioninstitutional.judicial_independence
SUPPORTED — controlled market-score coefficient has expected sign - and p=0.0374
supported
The v1 decomposition (three channels: WGI gov effectiveness, WGI rule of law, IMF debt/GDP) left 98% of the Nordic-vs-Southern-Europe log GDP/capita gap unexplained.
nordic_outcome_persistence_decomposition_v2inferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.spending_level
PARTIAL — coef=-0.1578, p=0.211 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
partial
Following El Salvador's perceived success with the régimen de excepción (March 2022 onward) and the homicide-rate collapse, multiple Latin American jurisdictions enacted Bukele-style emergency measures: Honduras (Estado de Excepción in select municipalities, December 2022), Ecuador (Estado de Excepción + designation of gangs as terrorist organisations, January 2024), Peru (Estado de Emergencia in Lima/Callao, 2023-).
latam_bukele_imitation_effect_homicide_security_stateinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawinstitutional.judicial_independence
PARTIAL — ATT=+0.03571, p=0.598, N=99, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)
partial
Across countries 1996-2023, higher WGI Rule of Law (RL) scores predict higher subsequent real per-capita GDP growth, conditional on standard controls (initial income, investment share, trade openness, demographic composition).
rule_of_law_institutional_growthinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — coef=+5.028e-17, p=0.0526; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage judicial effectiveness in 2024 have higher latest-available life expectancy than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_judicial_effectiveness_life_expectancy_current_gapinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawinstitutional.judicial_independencefiscal.transfer_expansion
SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign + and Welch p=1.773e-16
supported

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.