Policies·br_nova_matriz_economica_2011_2014

Nova Matriz Econômica — Dilma heterodox policy mix

BRA·2011 – 2014·enacted 2011-08-02·PT + PMDBcandidate

movesproduct market competition↓sectoral subsidy↑central bank independence↓

What the policy did

"New Economic Matrix" (Mantega) — heterodox combination: below-neutral real interest rates via Selic cut cycle 2011-2013 (peak 12.5% to 7.25% Oct 2012), administered-price suppression (electricity MP 579 Sep 2012, Petrobras fuel-price freeze), credit-cycle push via BNDES + Caixa + BB, IPI auto-sector holidays 2011-2014, Plano Brasil Maior industrial-policy package Aug 2011 (tax exemptions, local-content rules, desoneração da folha payroll-tax relief for 56 sectors). Framework abandoned 2015 under Joaquim Levy orthodox adjustment.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

product market competition

regulatory.product_market_competition

Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.

decreased · moderate

more restrictive regulation, higher entry barriers

Price controls + local-content rules reduced competitive-pricing scope.

↑

sectoral subsidy

fiscal.sectoral_subsidy

Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).

increased · moderate

expanded sectoral subsidies

IPI holidays + desoneração da folha + BNDES subsidised credit.

↓

central bank independence

monetary.central_bank_independence

De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.

decreased · weak

lower independence (fiscal dominance, politicised appointments)

Executive pressure on BCB to cut rates below market-implied neutral.

Enacted by

brazil_dilma_rousseff_pt_2011_2016

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

The Soviet central-planning system, having already exhibited TFP stagnation 1970-1989, underwent a canonical institutional and economic collapse 1989-1998 as plan-enforcement was withdrawn without functioning market institutions in place.

soviet_union_central_planning_gdp_collapse_1989_1991inferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Among high-income economies 1990-2020, services-sector competition — measured by low barriers to entry, low incumbent-protection scores, and high churn in retail, transport, communications, and professional services — predicts long-run prosperity (real GDP per capita growth and labour-productivity growth) better than manufacturing-specific industrial policy spending.

sectoral_competition_services_productivityinferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

PARTIAL — coef=+0.000842, p=0.361 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

Across a broad panel of economies 1980-2020, market reforms (privatisation, trade liberalisation, and price decontrol) produce durable gains in real GDP per capita growth only when rule-of-law scores exceed a minimum threshold (WGI Rule of Law > -0.5, approximately the 40th percentile of the global distribution).

rule_of_law_market_reform_complementarityinferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competition

REFUTED — coef=-0.1483 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00481

refuted

Across a broad panel of developing and emerging-market economies 1980-2020, price controls and directed input subsidies predict higher capital misallocation — measured by the dispersion of the marginal product of capital across firms or sectors — and lower long-run total-factor-productivity growth.

price_signal_distortion_capital_misallocationinferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

PARTIAL — coef=+0.008607, p=0.542 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.

estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competition

PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)

partial

Market-oriented reform episodes that persist for at least twenty years produce more durable GDP-per-capita and productivity gains than short reform bursts or state-led industrial-policy episodes without sustained market competition.

market_reform_duration_growth_persistenceinferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=+0.3555, p=0.172 (above α=0.10)

partial

Among high-income economies 2000-2020, startup density (new high- growth firms per 1000 working-age population) predicts frontier prosperity — measured by real GDP per capita growth and productivity growth — more strongly than industrial-policy spending as a share of GDP.

startup_density_frontier_prosperityinferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitionfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

PARTIAL — coef=-6.218e-06, p=0.386 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

partial

In a panel of middle-income countries 1990-2020, export complexity (Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity Index) rises more following reforms that improve foreign market access and reduce domestic entry barriers than following expansions of subsidy-only industrial policy.

export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidyinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.product_market_competition

PARTIAL — coef=+4.68e-14, p=0.393; effect magnitude effectively zero

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Austrian ÖIAG / verstaatlichte Industrie counter-cyclical employment expansion 1975-1985

AUT·1970

match

1.7

sectoral subsidyproduct market competition

PDVSA autonomy loss + upstream nationalisation 2003-2007

VEN·2003

match

1.7

sectoral subsidyproduct market competition

Precios Cuidados / Precios Justos price-control regimes (2019-2023)

ARG·2019