Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
Lei Complementar 200/2023 (the Novo Arcabouco Fiscal) replaced the 2016 spending cap (EC 95) with a flexible primary-balance rule under the Lula third term and finance minister Fernando Haddad. The framework caps real expenditure growth at 70% of revenue growth within a corridor of 0.6%-2.5% and ties exit from negative primary deficits to declining debt-to-GDP, retaining a fiscal anchor while freeing room for transfer expansion and re-industrialisation spending.
Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.
Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".
Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.