Policies·mx_electricity_industry_law_reform_2021

Mexican Ley de la Industria Eléctrica reform — CFE-first dispatch (2021)

MEX·2021 – ·enacted 2021-03-09·Morena + PT + PVEMcandidate

movesproduct market competition↓energy supply security↓property rights↓

What the policy did

Reform to the Ley de la Industria Eléctrica (DOF 9-mar-2021) reordering grid dispatch priority to favour CFE-owned generation (hydro, thermal, combined cycle) over private renewables, revoking self-supply permits issued under the 2013 model and enabling CFE review of legacy CEL certificates. Heavily litigated — SCJN in April 2022 struck key provisions by simple-majority but fell short of the 8-vote supermajority needed to invalidate generally; parallel constitutional reform attempt (2022) failed to clear the 2/3 threshold.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↓

product market competition

regulatory.product_market_competition

Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.

decreased · strong

more restrictive regulation, higher entry barriers

Dispatch merit order replaced by CFE priority; private generators' economics deteriorated.

unintended / side-effect

↓

energy supply security

regulatory.energy_supply_security

Policy posture toward energy supply security — domestic production capacity, import diversification, strategic reserves, nuclear stance, fossil-fuel mix discipline.

decreased · moderate · unintended

lower supply-security posture (single-supplier dependence, early phase-outs)

Renewable investment pipeline stalled; reserve margins tightened 2022-2024.

↓

property rights

institutional.property_rights

Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.

decreased · moderate · unintended

weaker property rights

Retroactive review of self-supply permits.

Enacted by

mexico_amlo_morena_2018_2024

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

The Soviet central-planning system, having already exhibited TFP stagnation 1970-1989, underwent a canonical institutional and economic collapse 1989-1998 as plan-enforcement was withdrawn without functioning market institutions in place.

soviet_union_central_planning_gdp_collapse_1989_1991inferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitioninstitutional.property_rights

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Starting from comparable 1945 post-war conditions — same ethnicity, language, pre-war German institutional and industrial inheritance, and with the GDR inheriting a larger share of pre-war industrial capital in Saxony and Thuringia — the Federal Republic's Soziale Marktwirtschaft (Ordoliberal market economy with welfare state) versus the German Democratic Republic's planned economy with administered prices, state-enterprise production, and soft budget constraints produced by 1989 a canonical divergence that pattern-matches >=7 of 10 pre-registered extreme-outcome metrics, each drawn from a different publisher or methodology family.

west_east_germany_economic_system_divergence_1950_1989inferred

viainstitutional.property_rightsregulatory.product_market_competition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['derived: count of canonical_metrics with threshold met']

run pending

Estonia adopted among the most radical market-liberalisation packages of any post-Soviet state — flat tax (26% universal rate, 1994), currency board (EEK pegged to DM/EUR, 1992), rapid privatisation, unilateral free trade, and minimal capital controls — and by 2007 had recovered to Soviet-era GDP per capita levels and substantially exceeded them, while Belarusian and Ukrainian peers had not recovered comparably.

estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007inferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitioninstitutional.property_rights

PARTIAL — recovery threshold pass=True (year_recovered=1998, 2007 vs 1991 = 70.53282727739165); Baltic−CIS gap pass=False (gap=5.1509956229348575)

partial

Across a broad panel of economies 1980-2020, market reforms (privatisation, trade liberalisation, and price decontrol) produce durable gains in real GDP per capita growth only when rule-of-law scores exceed a minimum threshold (WGI Rule of Law > -0.5, approximately the 40th percentile of the global distribution).

rule_of_law_market_reform_complementarityinferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitioninstitutional.property_rights

REFUTED — coef=-0.1483 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00481

refuted

Zimbabwean property-rights deterioration post-2000 (commercial-farm expropriation without compensation) precedes hyperinflation and output collapse; institutional mechanism is necessary, not merely monetary.

zimbabwe_property_rights_output_linkinferred

viainstitutional.property_rightsregulatory.product_market_competition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

run pending

Following the 1989-1992 collapse of the Soviet bloc, post-communist countries that adopted market reforms rapidly (Poland, Estonia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania — the "fast reformers") experienced faster recovery in life expectancy at birth than countries that reformed slowly or retained state-socialist economic structures (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan — the "slow reformers").

post_soviet_market_reform_life_expectancyinferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitioninstitutional.property_rights

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'fast_reformer_post_transition' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

run pending

Among high-income and near-frontier economies from 1970 to 2024, lower product-market regulation, stronger competition, and stronger property rights predict higher long-run TFP growth than state ownership or targeted industrial-policy intensity.

frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel_1970_2024inferred

viainstitutional.property_rightsregulatory.product_market_competition

REFUTED — coef=-0.06298 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0331

refuted

Peru's 1990-1995 Fujimori shock-therapy package (price liberalisation, fiscal stabilisation under the August 1990 "Fujishock", Brady-style external debt restructuring 1996-1997, large-scale privatisation of SOEs, central-bank independence under the 1993 constitution, and trade liberalisation) produced a structural break in inflation and real-GDP per capita relative to Peru's 1985-1990 hyperinflation trajectory and relative to a Latin American peer pool that did not adopt comparable packages on the same timeline.

peru_fujimori_shock_therapy_1990_2000inferred

viaregulatory.product_market_competitioninstitutional.property_rights

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-0.7927, |gap|/pre_sd=7.8, p_perm=0.4; claim direction ambiguous

partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Post-independence nationalisations and state economy

AGO·1976

match

1.9

property rightsproduct market competition

Bulgaria agricultural collectivisation 1946-1958

BGR·1946

match

1.9

property rightsproduct market competition

Bulgaria nationalisation law 1947

BGR·1947