Policies·au_home_insulation_programme_2009

Home Insulation Programme (Pink Batts)

AUS·2009 – 2010·ALPcandidate

movessectoral subsidy↑environmental stringency↑

What the policy did

A$2.45bn component of the Feb 2009 Nation Building and Jobs Plan subsidising residential ceiling insulation retrofits, implemented from 1 Jul 2009. Rapid rollout induced safety failures leading to four installer deaths and ~200 house fires. Programme terminated 19 Feb 2010; 2014 Royal Commission found administrative and regulatory failures.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended

↑

sectoral subsidy

fiscal.sectoral_subsidy

Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).

increased · moderate

expanded sectoral subsidies

Direct subsidy of residential retrofits as green-stimulus vehicle.

↑

environmental stringency

regulatory.environmental_stringency

Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.

increased · weak

more stringent environmental rules

Drove energy-efficiency retrofit uptake.

Enacted by

australia_rudd_alp_2007_2010

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

The 2022-2026 wave of major-economy industrial-policy programmes — US IRA + CHIPS, EU Critical Raw Materials Act + Net-Zero Industry Act, EU Chips Act, Japan Green Transformation (GX, ¥150tn / ~$1tn announced), Korea K-Chips + Korean New Deal 2.0, China 14th Five-Year Plan + Made-in-China-2025-2.0 with semiconductors and clean energy as national-security frontier — represents the largest coordinated wave of industrial-policy spending in the post-1970s OECD record.

green_industrial_policy_global_chip_race_2022_2026inferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.environmental_stringency

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (20)

run pending

Germany's 2010-2024 Energiewende-driven reduction in territorial CO2 emissions, valued at a central social-cost-of-carbon (SCC) of USD 185/tCO2 (Rennert et al.

energiewende_avoided_emissions_value_outweighs_industrial_costinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.environmental_stringency

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.119, ratio=1.13; claim direction ambiguous

partial

Germany's industrial electricity prices diverged upward from a basket of comparable industrial peers (United States, France, Sweden, Norway, Finland) after the 2011 Energiewende pivot and the gap widened further through the 2014 nuclear-phase-out milestones and the 2022 gas crisis.

german_energiewende_industrial_cost_trajectoryinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.environmental_stringency

refuted — Germany's industrial GVA gap on 2015-2020 average is +0.095 log (wrong sign for industrial-cost-penalty story), placebo p=0.4444444444444444.

refuted

EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowance prices traded in a sustained €70-100/tCO2 range from late 2021 through 2024 (with a peak at €105 in February 2023), a step-change above the €5-30 range that prevailed through Phase I-III (2005-2020).

eu_ets_price_2022_2026_carbon_signal_strengthinferred

viaregulatory.environmental_stringencyfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded

run pending

Indigenous-managed parcels in the Amazon basin (BRA, PER, COL, ECU, BOL), Canadian First-Nations comanagement areas, and Australian Indigenous Protected Areas retain at least 20% more above-ground biomass per hectare than biome-matched state- protected and private parcels over 2003-2023, after controlling for slope, accessibility, and pre-treatment biome composition.

indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premiuminferred

viaregulatory.environmental_stringencyfiscal.sectoral_subsidy

REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-24.79, p=0.0806, N=70, treated_countries=4

refuted

Biden's IRA/CHIPS industrial policy will show partial success on capacity-building metrics and mixed results on job creation, consistent with the conditional view that industrial policy works where targeting is technically competent and governance is strong.

industrial_policy_semiconductor_chips_act_effectivenessinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

inconclusive — Stacked: (4/4) spec-named semi-specific series unavailable on disk (oecd:STAN_INDUSTRY ISIC C26, bls:CES3133, ilostat:semiconductor employment, c…

run pending

Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.

nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effectinferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

run pending

Countries with very large renewable-electricity gains should also show visible economy-wide energy transition: among countries where renewable electricity share rose by at least 20 percentage points from 2000 to 2023, at least 80% should increase renewables' share of total energy by at least 5 percentage points, and the median total-energy renewable-share gain should be at least 8 percentage points.

owid_electric_renewables_total_energy_followthrough_2000_2023inferred

viafiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.environmental_stringency

supported

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Energiewende — post-Fukushima nuclear phase-out + renewable-energy acceleration

DEU·2011

match

1.5

environmental stringencysectoral subsidy

Japan Feed-in Tariff (FIT) law for renewable electricity 2011

JPN·2011

match

1.5

environmental stringencysectoral subsidy

Netherlands Klimaatakkoord + Klimaatwet 2019

NLD·2019