IESET.
Policies·brazil_mover_green_mobility_law_2024

Brazil Mover Green Mobility Law 2024

BRA·2024 – present·enacted 2024-06-27·PT-led Lula third-term coalitioncandidate
movessectoral subsidy↑tax corporate↓environmental stringency↑

What the policy did

Law 14.902/2024 created the Mover green-mobility and innovation programme, replacing the Rota 2030 automotive framework. The programme ties automotive tax credits and industrial incentives to research and development, vehicle energy-efficiency and lifecycle-emissions criteria, supply-chain innovation, and lower-carbon mobility technologies.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
The programme grants tax credits and industrial incentives to eligible automotive and mobility investments.
↓
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
decreased · weak
lower corporate tax burden
Eligible firms receive tax credits that reduce the effective corporate tax burden on qualifying projects.
↑
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
increased · moderate
more stringent environmental rules
Incentives are conditioned on energy-efficiency and lifecycle-emissions requirements for vehicles.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

The 2022-2026 wave of major-economy industrial-policy programmes — US IRA + CHIPS, EU Critical Raw Materials Act + Net-Zero Industry Act, EU Chips Act, Japan Green Transformation (GX, ¥150tn / ~$1tn announced), Korea K-Chips + Korean New Deal 2.0, China 14th Five-Year Plan + Made-in-China-2025-2.0 with semiconductors and clean energy as national-security frontier — represents the largest coordinated wave of industrial-policy spending in the post-1970s OECD record.
green_industrial_policy_global_chip_race_2022_2026inferred
viafiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.environmental_stringency
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (20)
run pending
Germany's 2010-2024 Energiewende-driven reduction in territorial CO2 emissions, valued at a central social-cost-of-carbon (SCC) of USD 185/tCO2 (Rennert et al.
energiewende_avoided_emissions_value_outweighs_industrial_costinferred
viafiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.environmental_stringency
PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.119, ratio=1.13; claim direction ambiguous
partial
Germany's industrial electricity prices diverged upward from a basket of comparable industrial peers (United States, France, Sweden, Norway, Finland) after the 2011 Energiewende pivot and the gap widened further through the 2014 nuclear-phase-out milestones and the 2022 gas crisis.
german_energiewende_industrial_cost_trajectoryinferred
viafiscal.sectoral_subsidyregulatory.environmental_stringency
refuted — Germany's industrial GVA gap on 2015-2020 average is +0.095 log (wrong sign for industrial-cost-penalty story), placebo p=0.4444444444444444.
refuted
Ireland’s long-run convergence from a middle-income to a high-income economy during 1987–2024 is better predicted by trade openness, tax competitiveness, and FDI entry than by classic industrial planning.
ireland_market_opening_fdi_frontier_1987_2024inferred
viafiscal.tax_corporatefiscal.sectoral_subsidy
supported
supported
EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowance prices traded in a sustained €70-100/tCO2 range from late 2021 through 2024 (with a peak at €105 in February 2023), a step-change above the €5-30 range that prevailed through Phase I-III (2005-2020).
eu_ets_price_2022_2026_carbon_signal_strengthinferred
viaregulatory.environmental_stringencyfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded
run pending
Indigenous-managed parcels in the Amazon basin (BRA, PER, COL, ECU, BOL), Canadian First-Nations comanagement areas, and Australian Indigenous Protected Areas retain at least 20% more above-ground biomass per hectare than biome-matched state- protected and private parcels over 2003-2023, after controlling for slope, accessibility, and pre-treatment biome composition.
indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premiuminferred
viaregulatory.environmental_stringencyfiscal.sectoral_subsidy
REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-24.79, p=0.0806, N=70, treated_countries=4
refuted
Biden's IRA/CHIPS industrial policy will show partial success on capacity-building metrics and mixed results on job creation, consistent with the conditional view that industrial policy works where targeting is technically competent and governance is strong.
industrial_policy_semiconductor_chips_act_effectivenessinferred
viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy
inconclusive — Stacked: (4/4) spec-named semi-specific series unavailable on disk (oecd:STAN_INDUSTRY ISIC C26, bls:CES3133, ilostat:semiconductor employment, c…
run pending
Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.
nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effectinferred
viafiscal.sectoral_subsidy
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING
run pending

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Netherlands Klimaatakkoord + Klimaatwet 2019
NLD·2019
match
1.9
environmental stringencysectoral subsidytax corporate
Inflation Reduction Act 2022 — industrial policy / climate package
USA·2022
match
1.7
sectoral subsidyenvironmental stringencytax corporate
Energiewende — post-Fukushima nuclear phase-out + renewable-energy acceleration
DEU·2011
match
1.7
environmental stringencysectoral subsidy
Japan Feed-in Tariff (FIT) law for renewable electricity 2011
JPN·2011
match
1.7
environmental stringencysectoral subsidy
Netherlands Nationaal Programma Landelijk Gebied (nitrogen buyout programme) 2022-2023
NLD·2022
match
1.7
environmental stringencysectoral subsidy
Heizungsgesetz — Gebäudeenergiegesetz amendment mandating 65% renewable heating 2023
DEU·2023
match
1.5
environmental stringencysectoral subsidy
Germany Kohleausstieg (coal phase-out law, 2020)
DEU·2020
match
1.5
environmental stringencysectoral subsidy
Danish Climate Act 2020 (Klimaloven — 70% by 2030)
DNK·2020
match
1.5
environmental stringencysectoral subsidy

References